This content uncovers North Korea’s hidden view of China, the military risks of a border with the PRC, and why China’s failure in Taiwan may be Korea’s best-case future.👇
1. China’s Invasion Plan if North Korea Collapses
China has a detailed military plan in place in the event of a North Korean collapse. The Shenyang Military Region, one of China’s seven major commands and its most combat-ready, is tasked with this operation. With a high concentration of tanks and armored vehicles, the PLA is prepared to cross the Yalu and Tumen Rivers at full speed to plant its flag in the North.
South Korea’s intelligence and defense sectors closely monitor this threat. If North Korea falls, China will likely attempt to seize territory before the South or U.S. forces can respond.
2. The Consequences of Bordering China
Sharing a border with North Korea is one thing. Sharing a border with China is entirely different. If South Korea were to face China directly at its northern frontier, it would enter a century-long nightmare of tension, instability, and military stress. Avoiding direct border contact with China is a national security imperative.
3. The Historical Duty to Defend Korea’s Northern Boundary
The current border at the Yalu and Tumen Rivers was solidified under King Sejong, marking the final survival zone of the Korean people. While this may sound nationalistic, it is historically accurate. If today’s generation fails to defend it, future generations will suffer and blame us. In a democratic society, that blame will fall on every citizen—not just the government.
4. What North Korea’s Leaders Really Think of China
North Korea’s leadership is well aware of the Chinese threat. During the 2000 inter-Korean summit, Kim Jong-il told South Korean President Kim Dae-jung that the U.S. military presence in South Korea was necessary to protect the peninsula from surrounding powers, especially China.
Later, Kim Jong-un reportedly told then U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that U.S. Forces Korea were necessary “to protect me from China.” This confirms the regime's true strategic fear: not the U.S., but China.
North Korea’s pivot to Russia is also rooted in this fear—aligning with Moscow serves as a counterbalance to Beijing’s overwhelming regional power.
5. The Ideal Scenario for Korea: China’s Failure in Taiwan
From Seoul’s perspective, the best-case scenario is China’s defeat in a Taiwan invasion. A failed assault could lead to internal division, economic collapse, and the fall of Xi Jinping’s regime. Some believe it could even revert China to a fragmented warlord era, similar to the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period.
In such a case, China would be too occupied to advance into the Korean Peninsula. This outcome would bring strategic and economic relief to South Korea and preserve the regional balance.
6. China's Military Bluff and Strategic Weaknesses
China’s military is strong on paper, but its capabilities may not match the specifications. Much like Russia’s underperformance in Ukraine, China's weapon systems are known for exaggerated specs and hidden flaws. Historically, the Soviet Union did the same during the arms race—and collapsed in part because of it.
Though China has unmatched production capacity, its technological base still relies on Russian roots. The true performance of its weapons will only be revealed in real combat—particularly if it fails in Taiwan.
7. Cold Truths About Korea-China Relations
In the 1990s and 2000s, Korea and China benefited from mutual economic growth. But today, we’re seeing the historical reality of Korean-Chinese relations resurface—where a rising China inevitably threatens Korean autonomy.
While most ordinary Chinese people are not enemies, the Chinese regime remains the biggest regional threat. If China fails in Taiwan and begins to fracture, it would be the safest and most stable outcome for Korea’s future. The longer that period of fragmentation lasts, the better for the Korean Peninsula.
