Kim Jong-un’s military alliance with Russia wasn’t just symbolic—it was a calculated move to counter China’s strategy, disrupt Beijing’s dominance, and gain geopolitical autonomy.👇
1. China’s “Use Barbarians to Control Barbarians” Strategy
China has long practiced a strategy known as *Yi Yi Zhi Yi*—controlling one barbarian with another. This ancient geopolitical method allowed China to manipulate surrounding tribes without direct conflict. It was notably used during the Ming Dynasty to divide the Jurchens (later the Manchus) into factions and maintain indirect control.
However, the strategy ultimately failed when Nurhaci, angered by China's manipulation, unified the tribes and founded the Qing Dynasty, which overthrew the Ming. This historical example shows that *Yi Yi Zhi Yi* can be effective in the short term, but dangerous in the long run.
2. China’s Taiwan Scenario and Use of Regional Distractions
China’s ideal scenario for invading Taiwan involves keeping the U.S., South Korea, and Japan too busy to intervene. This includes inciting North Korea to provoke South Korea, and encouraging Russia to pressure Japan, effectively tying down U.S. military assets in the region. This is the modern version of *Yi Yi Zhi Yi*—using others to serve Beijing’s strategic needs.
The U.S. has taken notice. Washington has reportedly warned South Korea that it may not be able to support both a Taiwan conflict and a North Korean crisis simultaneously. This public statement may have been aimed not just at policymakers but also at the Korean public to spur national preparedness.
3. Why Kim Jong-un Turned to Russia
North Korea is economically devastated, and Russia is heavily sanctioned. Both nations were once forced to rely on China. But now, by forming a military alliance, they have found in each other what they lack—technology, arms, manpower, or strategic positioning. This undermines China’s dominance and changes the regional power balance.
3.1 Legal Implications of the NK-Russia Alliance
The alliance includes a clause that obliges mutual defense if either party is attacked. If North Korea collapses or is invaded—especially by China—the alliance provides legal grounds for Russian military intervention. This was a deliberate move by Kim Jong-un to deter Chinese encroachment in a possible regime collapse scenario.
3.2 Why North Korea Distrusts China
North Koreans harbor deep resentment toward China. A common slogan in North Korea is: “Japan is a hundred-year enemy, but China is a thousand-year enemy.” Many in Pyongyang believe Beijing views North Korea as its next target. They see Chinese policies during past famines as deliberately exploitative—keeping North Koreans poor to maintain control, like starving a hunting dog to make it obedient.
3.3 Strategic Calculations by Kim Jong-un
Kim Jong-un is far from foolish. While North Korea’s economy and quality of life have plummeted, his strategic thinking remains sharp. He understands that relying solely on China is dangerous, and aligning with Russia creates space to maneuver—both politically and militarily.
4. Russia’s Future and the Long Game
Eventually, Russia will suffer from its war in Ukraine. Putin will die or lose power, and a new regime may seek reintegration with the West. Given Russian identity and history, Moscow is more likely to align with Europe than become a Chinese vassal. Russians view themselves as Europeans, and memories of Mongol domination are deeply traumatic.
4.1 What This Means for North Korea
When Russia inevitably leans West, North Korea’s early alliance could position it favorably—giving it continued leverage over both China and Russia. This also disrupts China’s long-term plan to dominate the Korean Peninsula after a hypothetical Taiwan victory.
4.2 A Smart Move in the Geopolitical Chessboard
Kim Jong-un invited Putin to Pyongyang and signed the pact not out of desperation but out of foresight. He anticipated China’s growing ambitions and chose to tie himself to a different power—one that gives him breathing room and leverage. In doing so, he’s thrown a wrench into China’s century-long regional strategy.
Conclusion: A Calculated Counter to Chinese Hegemony
Kim Jong-un’s alliance with Russia is more than symbolic—it is a strategic masterstroke. It undercuts China’s “divide and conquer” playbook, gives North Korea a second patron, and opens legal and military pathways to resist Chinese intervention. It’s a move that shows Kim’s awareness of historical patterns, current vulnerabilities, and future alignments.
